The third slam of the year will begin on Monday with Carlos Alcaraz looking to defend his title. The Spaniard beat Novak Djokovic in a five set classic last year to earn his second slam title with it coming as something of a surprise that he won at SW19 before doing so at the French Open.
Jannik Sinner will come into this tournament as the favourite, hoping to continue his improvement on the grass. A semi finalist last year, he has improved dramatically since then. His sole grass tournament before Wimbledon was at Halle, where he took home the title with a straight sets win over Hubert Hurkacz in the final. He had to make it through some scrappy three setters at the beginning but was only broken in one of the five matches played there. With no doubts over his fitness this time round, he should be fairly confident of a deep run and is a rightful favourite. Tallon Griekspoor could be a tricky seeded opponent in round three but Ben Shelton has flattered to deceive on grass so far in his young career. A second round clash against 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini has potential but his fellow Italian’s fitness has been a question for several years now.
Daniil Medvedev was a semi-finalist last year but his grass performances have been inconsistent with the Russian often found out against players with a more traditional grass court game. An early Halle lost to Zhizhen Zhang is unlikely to inspire many and we could get a repeat in round three if the 32nd seeded Chinese holds up his end of the bargain. Grigor Dimitrov will hope to continue his impressive 2024 although Wimbledon has not been a great place for him recently with three first round losses in the last five. An early loss to Sebastian Korda at Queens is not bad on the face of it but remains the kind of match you’d expect to win as a Wimbledon dark horse.
Carlos Alcaraz was another who lost early at Queens, doing so to Jack Draper in straight sets. It’s unlikely to be much of a setback to his chances but he will be disappointed at having failed to defend that title in London. Being in the same half as Sinner is not ideal for the Spaniard but it’s likely that his route to the title would require a win over the Italian at some stage either way. Avoiding an early loss will be the key for Alcaraz with the Centre Court conditions likely to change in his favour as the fortnight goes on. It’s difficult to identify a player in his section that could trouble him in week one with his first two potential seeded opponents being ones who are unlikely to be able to outlast him over best of five.
Casper Ruud once again remains the weak point in the Wimbledon draw in terms of seeding. It is a surface he clearly struggles on and with no practice tournaments scheduled, one he doesn’t appear to have interest in improving on. The eighth seed could even lose against qualifier Alex Bolt in round one but one thing seems fairly certain – he will not live up to his seeding and make the quarter final. Tommy Paul looks best placed to take advantage here having won the title at Queens and having a big serve/forehand combo that should help him greatly here.
Andrey Rublev will look to add a second Wimbledon quarter final to his long list here, where he should be the marginal favourite to do so from this section of the draw. While he lost his only match in Halle this year, he has competed well at the event previously with two finals in his last two attempts there. Stefanos Tsitsipas‘ grass problems have been well documented so the two lower ranked seeds will be eyeing up an opportunity. Lorenzo Musetti was a finalist at Queens while Sebastian Korda has had a fruitful grass swing, making a semi final and final over the past three weeks.
The bottom half of the third quarter is fairly stacked with at least four players who would not be surprise quarter finalists if they made it. Alejandro Tabilo will be a Top 20 player next week after winning Mallorca while Queens champion Jack Draper will hope the home boost helps him next week. French Open finalist Alexander Zverev is the highest seeded but is the only player not to win a title in June of the four seeds. A strong serving performance will need to be the basis of his run here but he will need to work hard if he is to make his first quarter final at SW19. Taylor Fritz really should have been a semi finalist two years ago but will have an opportunity to make up for that this time round. He managed to win the Eastbourne title without dropping serve once, adding 59 aces along the way.
Hubert Hurkacz famously beat Roger Federer in his last Wimbledon match but the Pole will have an opportunity this fortnight to make a greater memory with a draw that favours him greatly. The Pole has a game fit for grass and can be unbreakable at times on the surface. His struggles in the clutch may plague him, as they did in the Halle final where he lost in two tiebreak sets to Jannik Sinner. Felix Auger-Aliassime does have a 3-1 record against Hurkacz but they are yet to play over best of five. It may well be the real farewell too for Andy Murray, who is scheduled to play Tomas Machac but injury worries may well mean this match is either not competitive or doesn’t happen at all.
Fitness worries do also surround last year’s finalist Novak Djokovic, who is not long off knee surgery on a problem picked up at the French Open. He did take to the court for an exhibition match on Friday, defeating Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. “I can tell you that pain-free tennis is the best tennis. I was pain free and I’m really glad. It was a great test obviously against one of the best players in the world.” he said after the event.
The second seed has not been his invincible self this year so it will remain interesting to see how he looks early next week. He has been granted the perfect start with a qualifier and then a qualifier/wildcard, which should allow him to find his footing and ease into the tournament without any drama. Karen Khachanov is probably best placed to trouble Djokovic while 2023 quarter finalist Christopher Eubanks has struggled to build on his impressive performance here last year.
Prediction – Jannik Sinner defeats Hubert Hurkacz
