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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov Madrid 2023 Prediction and Stats

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World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz continues his defence of the Madrid title on Sunday evening with Grigor Dimitrov the latest player to take a crack at the dominant Spaniard. The pair have met once before with Alcaraz winning very easily at the Paris Masters last year, taking it 6-1 6-3.

Dimitrov has a 3-1 record on clay so far this year thanks to winning each of his openers at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and now here. There are no suggestions he is still feeling the impact of the illness that saw him withdraw in Barcelona although the 7-6 7-6 win in his opener against Gregoire Barrere might be closer than the Bulgarian might have liked. He has been able to hold his own on clay but often has struggled against the best players on the surface with his style suited elsewhere.

Alcaraz moved to 22-2 on the year after beating Emil Ruusuvuori but was made to work extremely hard for it in what was a rare three setter for the Spaniard. He had to come back from a set and break points down, eventually coming out on top 2-6 6-4 6-2. A combination of early sloppy play and clean power hitting from his opponent saw him in trouble before he tidied things up and eventually ground out the victory. “It was really tough. I would say I was about to lose,” Alcaraz said. “It was just one point. One of the break points he had at 2-3 in the second set was like a match point for him. I was really happy I was able to save that game and come back a bit. It was really tough. Emil played unbelievably, but I am really, really happy to get through that.”

It is hard to see how Dimitrov can consistently trouble Alcaraz in this one. The Bulgarian likes to stay at the baseline just as much and is not going to be able to match the shotmaking or athleticism of his younger opponent throughout this one. It will be harder to finish points on clay and he is going to be massively disadvantaged in the longer rallies against Alcaraz too.

Prediction – Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets

Aaron Higgs
Aaron Higgs
Experienced tennis writer with a focus on event previews and results.

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