Aryna Sabalenka looks to win Madrid for the second time in three years, facing off against Sorana Cirstea in her opening match here. The Belarussian has been superb this year and currently has a 23-4 record with Cirstea being one of the women responsible who contributed to that 4, winning a straight sets match in Miami.
Sabalenka made her fourth final of the year in Stuttgart, looking impressive on the way there before losing easily to Iga Swiatek in the final. It felt like a reality check for the No.2, who will see what level is required to challenge Swiatek in the biggest clay tournaments this spring. She had just one break point in her 6-3 6-4 loss while still getting troubled on serve despite a reasonable enough first serve percentage and five aces to just two double faults.
In her first match since Miami, Cirstea needed three sets to see off Lauren Davis 6-3 3-6 6-1. Her 2009 French Open quarter final run is still her career best at a slam but she has struggled to produce that level on the surface against better opponents in recent years. She has not made it past the second round in Madrid since 2017 while going further than that at the French Open just once in the same time frame.
Despite her surprise loss in their only previous meeting, Sabalenka is going to head into this as the overwhelming favourite and should have learned from last time. She should be able to overpower the Romanian in this one, especially with the lack of match practice in the past month for her opponent. In a quarter of the draw where the biggest seeded threats appear to be Petra Kvitova and Beatriz Haddad Maia, Sabalenka should fancy her chances of another confidence boosting run on this surface.
Prediction – Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets
